Research
2026
A Database of the United States Supreme Courts Shadow Docket, 1993-2025
With Jonathan Kastellec
Journal of Law and Courts (2026): n. pag. Print.
Abstract
The last decade has witnessed a significant increase in academic and journalistic interest in the United States Supreme Courts shadow docket. Yet despite this increased interest, there exists no systematic database of the shadow docket. This paper summarizes the Supreme Court Shadow Docket Database, which we create by parsing the Journal of the Supreme Court from the 1993 through 2024 terms into individual orders. We categorize these orders into a set of usable categories, including cert denials, injunctions, summary reversals, mandamus petitions and grant, vacate, and remands. We illustrate some potential uses of the data to by examining several interesting trends in the Courts use of the shadow docket over time.
2025
The Path of Law: Legal Uncertainty and Cases of First Impression in the U.S. Courts of Appeals
American Political Science Review (2025): n. pag. Print.
- Honorable Mention: 2025 APSA Law and Courts Best Conference Paper
Abstract
When deciding new issues, judges face uncertainty about how cases map into their existing
understanding of the law. This uncertainty can lead to conflicting decisions on the same legal
question, generating inconsistent law. I develop a formal theory of judicial decision making,
where courts learn about and rule on new legal issues. I find that courts learn most from their ideological allies; however, increasing the ideological distance between courts can either increase or decrease legal uniformity. Using an original dataset of cases of first impression in the U.S. Courts of Appeals, I find that increasing the ideological distance between two courts increases the probability of disagreement if the previous court’s decision is in-line with their relative bias, and decreases disagreement when the decision runs counter to their relative bias. My findings highlight the ways that courts can use decisions from even ideologically distant peers to learn about new legal issues.
Reviewing Fast or Slow: A Theory of Summary Reversal in the Judicial Hierarchy
With Alexander Hirsch and Jonathan Kastellec
American Journal of Political Science (2025): n. pag. Print.
Abstract
Appellate courts with discretionary dockets have multiple ways to review lower courts. We develop a formal model that evaluates the tradeoffs between “full review”—which features full briefing, oral arguments, and signed opinions—versus “quick review,” where a higher court can summarily reverse a lower court. We show that having the option of costless summary reversal can increase compliance by lower courts, but also distort their behavior compared to relying only on costly full review. When the higher court is uncertain about the lower court’s preferences, the threat of summary reversal can lead an aligned lower court to “pander” and issue the opposite disposition to that preferred by the higher court. Access to summary reversal can therefore harm the higher court in some circumstances. Our analysis provides a theoretical foundation for growing concern over the U.S. Supreme Court’s “shadow docket”—of which summarily reversals are a component—which has been empirically focused to date.
A Database of the United States Supreme Courts Shadow Docket, 1993-2025
With Jonathan Kastellec
Data: https://www.shadowdocketdata.com/
Abstract
The last decade has witnessed a significant increase in academic and journalistic interest in the United States Supreme Courts shadow docket. Yet despite this increased interest, there exists no systematic database of the shadow docket. This paper summarizes the Supreme Court Shadow Docket Database, which we create by parsing the Journal of the Supreme Court from the 1993 through 2024 terms into individual orders. We categorize these orders into a set of usable categories, including cert denials, injunctions, summary reversals, mandamus petitions and grant, vacate, and remands. We illustrate some potential uses of the data to by examining several interesting trends in the Courts use of the shadow docket over time.
Working Papers
Delegating Representation: The Influence of Lobbyists on Client Legislative Behavior
With Alina Dunlap
Abstract
What influence do lobbyists have on the behavior of interest groups? When representing multiple clients, lobbyists must balance time and credibility constraints with the need to adequately represent each client. We argue that lobbyists resolve these competing incentives by targeting policies that benefit large subsets of their clients, at the cost of a more individualized legislative strategy. We test our theory using an original dataset of intergovernmental lobbying in California. We find high levels of similarity in lobbying behavior among municipalities represented by the same lobbying firm, even when accounting for differences in municipalities’ demographic, fiscal, and geographic characteristics. Using a stacked difference-in-differences design, we find that when these governments change lobbying firms, the structure of their lobbying behavior changes as well. Our findings highlight the role of lobbyists in structuring their clients’ actions and the principal-agent problems inherent in contract lobbying.
Works in Progress
The Influence of Strategic Settlement on Perceptions of Judicial Bias
A Theory of Conflict in the Judicial Hierarchy